Risk and Factors Affecting Your Chances of Winning Lotto

Where does the number 13,983,816 come from

In Lotto, 6 numbers are chosen out of 49. The order of drawing does not matter, so the number of possible combinations is determined by combinations without repetition: 49 × 48 × 47 × 46 × 45 × 44 divided by 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1. The result is exactly 13,983,816 different combinations. Each of them has an identical chance of being drawn — including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

This is the only factor determining the probability of hitting the six numbers. There is no room in this calculation for "hot numbers", the day of the week, the draw number, or the choice of the point of sale. In 2026, Lotto draws take place on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays at around 22:00 — the time does not affect the probability calculation, it only determines the deadline for paying for a coupon.

Chances for individual prize tiers

The table below shows how many combinations lead to each prize tier and what the probability of hitting it in a single bet is. These numbers result from a combinatorial calculation for the 6-out-of-49 scheme and are constant — they do not change between draws.

Probability of winning in a single Lotto bet (6 out of 49)

Tier	Matches	Number of combinations	Chance of 1 in	Percentage
I	6	1	13,983,816	0.0000072%
II	5	258	54,201	0.0018%
III	4	13,545	1,032	0.0969%
IV	3	246,820	57	1.7650%
—	0, 1 or 2	13,723,192	1.02	98.1362%

The last row represents bets without a prize. In more than 98 out of 100 cases, a single bet does not hit any tier. This is a typical game outcome, not bad luck.

What actually changes with the number of bets

The number of bets is the only element that actually shifts the probability — and it does so linearly. Two different bets give a chance of 2 in 13,983,816, ten bets give 10 in 13,983,816. The condition: the combinations must differ. Ten times the same combination is still one chance of winning, though the cost is tenfold.

The scale, however, is merciless. To have a 1 in 100 chance of hitting six numbers, you would need to bet on nearly 140 thousand different combinations in a single draw — for a chance that is still only 1%. Check the current price of a single bet and coupon acceptance hours directly with the organizer, as these are details that change over time.

What no method changes

The following factors are sometimes described as ways to improve the outcome. None of them affects the probability of winning, because each draw is an event independent of all previous ones.

• Statistics on "hot" and "cold" numbers. The ball does not remember whether it came up a week ago. A number that has not appeared in 50 draws has exactly the same chance in the next draw as any other number.
• Reduced systems. They lower the cost compared to a full system and guarantee a lower prize tier for a specified number of matches, but they do not increase the chance of hitting six numbers beyond what results from the number of bets paid for.
• Choice of point of sale, day of the week, or time of purchasing a coupon. The draw takes place simultaneously for all participants and does not distinguish where or when the coupon was created.
• Sequences such as "an odd number more often follows an even one". This is the gambler's fallacy — the belief that randomness must even out over a short period.
• Choosing numbers rarely selected by other players. This does not change the chance of winning, but it makes financial sense: if a prize is won, there is a lower probability of sharing the pool with other players.

Financial risk — why this is not an investment

An investment assumes a positive expected value over the long term. Number games are built the opposite way: part of the revenue from bet sales goes to the prize pool, the rest covers taxes, organizer costs, and public purposes. This means that statistically a player gets back less than they put in — and the longer they play, the more certain this calculation becomes.

Practical implications for someone who wants to play anyway:

• Set a monthly amount whose loss will not change your financial situation, and do not exceed it regardless of results.
• Do not increase your stake after a series of losses. Previous draws do not increase the chance in the next one by even a fraction of a percent.
• Do not play with borrowed money or money intended for fixed obligations.
• Treat the cost of a coupon as an entertainment expense, not as a payment expected to return.

Fairness of the draw versus the player's influence

Lotto draws take place under the supervision of a commission, and the machines and sets of balls are subject to inspection. This entire system serves one purpose: to make the outcome unpredictable and equally probable for every combination. This works in the player's favor — but at the same time it rules out any advantage on their part.

In other words: the better randomness is protected, the more certain it is that no method of picking numbers works. These two things are two sides of the same coin. Whoever sells an "effective Lotto system" is selling something whose existence would contradict the fairness of the draw.