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Probability tree calculator

Enter probabilities as values from 0 to 1.

Probability: —

Fill in the fields above — the result is computed on this page.

Branch probabilities

Bars show the calculated outcomes.

Calculation branches

Event Probability
Fill in the fields above — the result is computed on this page.
What do these numbers mean?
  • Probabilities must stay between 0 and 1.
  • Define events before entering numbers.

The result assumes the supplied conditional probabilities are correct; repeated-trial mode assumes independence.

How do I use this page?
  1. Enter inputs.
  2. Check the branches and formula.

What this page does not do: The result assumes the supplied conditional probabilities are correct; repeated-trial mode assumes independence.

Further reading

Theory — how does a probability tree work?

A probability tree shows successive events as branches and lets you calculate the probability of an entire path. The calculator applies the multiplication rule for independent events and the complement rule when you need the probability that an outcome does not occur. Every intermediate value is shown on its branch, so you can trace where the final result comes from. Probabilities are entered as numbers between 0 and 1, not as percentages.

Frequently asked questions

Can I enter percentages?
Use decimals: 25% is 0.25.

See also

← All calculators

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Offline app and draw notifications

My saved selections

Selections saved only in this browser. Numbers are shown exactly as saved; this is not a lottery ticket.

Open the My saved selections hub
Restore with preview

Restore in the hub: review the file and confirm first. Both old backups and the complete selections + journal backup are supported. Nothing is uploaded.