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Scratch Card Expected Value Calculator

Enter the price, total ticket count and complete prize table for the same pool. Defaults are a worked example, not a real scratch card.

Expected net result per ticket: —

Fill in the fields above — the result is computed on this page.

Expected gross payout
—
Return as percentage of price (%)
—
Chance of any prize
—
Chance of a prize above ticket price
—

Calculation details

Scratch Card Expected Value Calculator
Prize Tickets Probability
Fill in the fields above — the result is computed on this page.
What do these numbers mean?
  • We compute it from the formula shown below — not from a prediction model and not from draw history.
  • Worked example: 100 tickets costing 5 each, with twenty prizes of 5, five of 20 and one of 100. Expected payout is 3, net result −2, return 60%, chance of any prize 26%, chance of profit 6%. A payout equal to the ticket price is not profit. Amounts are before taxes, in one currency. Expected value does not predict any individual ticket.

The numbers come from the formula and the values you typed above. They are not a forecast — no calculator changes the probability of a single draw.

How do I use this page?
  1. Enter your data and check the input limits.
  2. Read the result and the detail table when available.
  3. Change the inputs to compare scenarios. Calculations run locally in your browser.

What this page does not do: It does not point to numbers to play and does not predict a draw — every draw is independent of the previous ones.

Further reading

Formula

EV = Σ(vᵢ × nᵢ) / N − c
Each row describes the total payout on one ticket and the number of tickets with that payout. Do not count individual winning symbols on the same ticket separately. Remaining tickets are treated as losing tickets. Omitting a prize tier makes the result incomplete.
Theory — how is a scratch card's expected value calculated?

A scratch card's expected value is the average outcome derived from the entered payout table, the total number of tickets in the pool and the price of a single ticket. Each row describes one final combined prize per ticket and the count of tickets carrying it — winning symbols on the same ticket are never summed separately. Tickets not listed in the table are treated as losing. The net result subtracts the ticket price from the expected prize, and the default values are a worked example, not a real scratch card.

Frequently asked questions

What does the expected value of a scratch card mean?
It is the average outcome implied by the entered prize table, ticket count and price. Net expected value subtracts the ticket price from the expected payout. It does not predict the outcome of an individual ticket.
How do I enter the prize table?
Each row must give the total payout on one ticket and the number of tickets with that payout. Do not count winning symbols on the same ticket separately. Remaining tickets are treated as losing tickets; omitting a prize tier makes the result incomplete.
Are unclaimed prize counts enough to assess the current pool?
No. You need both the total number of unsold tickets and prizes on those same tickets. For an original issue, use the original prize table.

See also

← All calculators

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Selections saved only in this browser. Numbers are shown exactly as saved; this is not a lottery ticket.

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