Years vs. model Kaskada
Does any year deviate from the model — and does it mean anything?
- Draws in the sample
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- From
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- To
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- Data calculated
- 2026-09-16T15:15:34+02:00
What do these numbers show?
- Liczba lat w zestawieniu: 16, łącznie 9 417 losowań.
- Największe odchylenie pojedynczej liczby przypada na rok 2026: max |z| = 3,298 przy N = 517 losowań (liczba 9).
- Lata z małą próbą lub bez losowań są oznaczone w ostatniej kolumnie tabeli; ich miary opisowe zostają.
These are historical data. Each draw is independent of previous draws, so these numbers do not tell us what will be drawn next.
How do I use this page?
- Wybierz wiersz roku, który Cię interesuje.
- Porównaj miary T i max |z| z liczbą losowań N w tym samym wierszu — mały N daje większe wahania.
- Kliknij nagłówek kolumny, aby posortować tabelę; drugie kliknięcie odwraca kolejność.
What this page does not do: nie wskazuje przyczyny odchyleń i nie przewiduje kolejnych wyników.
Deviations from the model across years
Każdy wiersz to jeden rok losowań Kaskada. Miary porównują liczniki trafień 24 liczb z tego roku z modelem równych szans.
| df | Number | Notes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 204 | 18,039 | 23 | 1,680 | 20 | |
| 2012 | 313 | 24,225 | 23 | 1,752 | 15 | |
| 2013 | 357 | 22,828 | 23 | 2,593 | 18 | |
| 2014 | 365 | 25,605 | 23 | 2,984 | 3 | |
| 2015 | 365 | 32,452 | 23 | 2,984 | 7 | |
| 2016 | 722 | 28,352 | 23 | 2,456 | 14 | |
| 2017 | 730 | 23,011 | 23 | 2,591 | 12 | |
| 2018 | 730 | 22,832 | 23 | 1,851 | 14 | |
| 2019 | 730 | 29,091 | 23 | 2,295 | 12 | |
| 2020 | 732 | 21,942 | 23 | 1,848 | 6 | |
| 2021 | 730 | 23,977 | 23 | 2,591 | 7 | |
| 2022 | 730 | 11,416 | 23 | 1,480 | 18 | |
| 2023 | 730 | 20,007 | 23 | 2,073 | 15 | |
| 2024 | 732 | 23,922 | 23 | 1,996 | 14 | |
| 2025 | 730 | 38,848 | 23 | 3,183 | 9 | |
| 2026 | 517 | 39,104 | 23 | 3,298 | 9 |
Methodology
N is the number of draws in that year. All measures in the row refer only to that year's history.
T measures the total deviation of all numbers' hit counts from the expected value under the equal-chance model: the larger T is, the further the yearly counts stray from a uniform distribution.
df is the number of degrees of freedom for this measure — one less than the numbers in the pool.
max |z| is the largest single standardized deviation among all numbers, and "number" indicates which number it belongs to. When counts are tied, the lower number is shown.
Don't compare years with different N as if they were identical trials: with a small N the same differences in hits produce a larger T and max |z|. The deviation in the table is a fact from the history, not a determination of its cause.