Is a repeated number less likely next time?

No. In another independent draw each number again has probability 6/49.

Is zero repeats always the most typical?

That depends on game parameters and should be calculated from the hypergeometric distribution.

Are repeats from the previous draw unusual?

The number shared by two independent draws follows a hypergeometric distribution. For Lotto, the expected repeat count is 36/49, about 0.735.

Model

The first draw marks 6 numbers within a pool of 49. The second selects another 6 without replacement, so the number of matches X follows a hypergeometric distribution.

Formula

For k repeats,

P (X = k) = \frac{(\begin{matrix} 6 \\ k \end{matrix}) (\begin{matrix} 43 \\ 6 - k \end{matrix})}{(\begin{matrix} 49 \\ 6 \end{matrix})}

Expected value

For a pool of M numbers and two draws of m numbers, the expected number of repeats is

E (X) = \frac{m^{2}}{M}

. For Lotto: 6²/49 ≈ 0.735.

Example

Zero or one repeat is common under the model, but two or more can also occur when the draws are independent. Interpretation should use the full distribution rather than intuition after one draw.

History versus model

The analysis compares observed counts of 0, 1, 2 and more repeats across many draw pairs with expected values. One pair is not a mechanism test.

Limitations

The model assumes the same pool and draw size. Special draws or rule changes should be separated.

Frequently asked questions

Is a repeated number less likely next time?: No. In another independent draw each number again has probability 6/49.
Is zero repeats always the most typical?: That depends on game parameters and should be calculated from the hypergeometric distribution.

Check it on real draw data

Choose a draw range in Lotto Lab PRO and compare the observed result with the random model.

Open Lotto Lab PRO

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Last updated: 20.10.2026